NFL Picks ATS Week 13: Packers vs Patriots & More

Season to Date: 33-27 ATS (55%)

Last Week: 1-4 ATS 

Top Picks to Date: 9-3 ATS (75%)

Happy Turkey Day, everyone. We hope your Thanksgiving was filled with friends, food, football, and most importantly an infinitely long gratitude list. We've appreciated you for three seasons now and our only regret is that we don't have more time to spend waxing philosophical about the ridiculous art/tomfoolery of gambling. For a while now I've been meaning to apologize for the quickly declining lengths of our posts here at TSZ, but what we've sacrificed in circumlocution we've more than made up for with...well, fancy words like circumlocution. Oh, and winning. Unfortunately, our #1 pick went down last week when Tampa Bay quarterback, Josh McCown, threw back to back complete lasers to the Chicago Bears defense, flipping a Buccaneers lead into a huge third quarter deficit. Fortunately, however, we've already clinched a winning season with our top confidence picks which are now sitting at a respectable 9-3 ATS. 

NFL Week 13 Friday Five

#5. Oakland Raiders (+7) over ST. LOUIS RAMS: The Raiders got a confidence boosting win last week and had an extra three days off to recover. Although they are 1-10 SU on the season, they are now 4-1 ATS on the road covering larger lines. The Rams, on the other hand, are the a roller coaster - they've won every other week since mid-October, but with the exception of their 22-7 pounding of the Broncos, their average margin of victory is 2.3 points. We'll happily take the TD and a quickly improving Derek Carr.

#4. Cleveland Browns (+3.5) over BUFFALO BILLS: The AFC North is stacked this year and although the Browns are in last place again, they're also in second place sitting at 7-4 and tied with the Steelers and the Ravens. Do we pick the Browns every week? Almost, and so far that has paid off to the tune of 6-3-2 ATS, 3-1-1 ATS on the road, and 4-0-1 as an underdog. The Bills were dominant in a make-shift prime time game which is why 72% of the public is backing them, but that was against the Jets, people. We'll take the field goal plus in a game that has field goal win written all over it. 

#3. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+2.5) over Denver Broncos: The Chiefs have been great at home this year (4-1 ATS) including wins over playoff-bound New England and Seattle, while the Broncos have had their ups and downs on the road (2-3 SU/ATS) with their wins coming against the Oakland Raiders and the New York Jets. Since joining the Broncos, Peyton Manning is now 2-4 ATS after Week 8 against teams that allow less than 21 ppg. How awesomely specific is that? Looks like easy money taking a home dog in KC this weekend. 

#2. GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3) over New England Patriots: The Packers are 4-0-1 at home this year, winning games by an average of...TWENTY NINE POINTS PER GAME. That's ridiculous. I don't care how well New England is playing. Both of the Patriots losses have come on the road this year and when you have an unstoppable force going up against an unstoppable force, I'll take the home field advantage. This figures to be a potential Super Bowl preview and with 75% of the public backing New England, we like the Packers in a rout.

#1. Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS: Why on earth wouldn't we bet on a team whose only two losses this year have come at the hands of last year's Super Bowl teams - on the road. With the exception of falling to the Broncos and the Seahawks, the Arizona Cardinals have won their other three road games by exactly 11 points each (NYG, DAL, OAK). The once home-dominant Falcons haven't won on their turf since Week 3 and they haven't beaten anyone outside their crappy division at all this year. Why this line is so low, who knows? We'll gladly give up the 2.5 and likely get a double-digit win.

May the Spreads Be with You, 

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks Week 12: Broncos vs Dolphins ATS - Friday Five

Season to Date: 32-23 ATS (58%)

Last Week: 3-2 ATS 

Top Picks to Date: 9-2 ATS (82%)

The unbelievable run of #1 picks continues at TSZ. Once again, gambling is akin to dating. When you're in a relationship, it's easy to flirt and get phone numbers because there's nothing to lose. In fact, in some demographics, married makes you even more attractive because there's nothing to lose on the other side. When you're single, however, and forced to play the game, take risks, and get rejected it's a whole other ballgame. Similarly, when Marco and I were in the game last season, "investing" money for our friends, we were broke by Week 9. This year, however, when we're just picking games with nothing at stake, we can apparently get whatever we want. Favorite, dog, home, away, hot, ugly, our number one picks keep on hitting. It's another classic "If Only..." tale of a degenerate gambler. 

This week Marco and I tried a new "system." Most of our systems are the same and have nothing to do with those fancy things called "computer programs" (whatever that is), and most hinge of efficiency, dialogue, and a rudimentary knowledge of sports, psychology, and the gambling industry. This week, the summation of that was a game we call "Like, Love, or Pass." We just went down the list and said one of those words. When we had a like or love in common, that became a game for discussion. The rest went by the wayside. Here are this week's Friday Five

Friday Five Week 12 

#5. Cleveland Browns (+3) over ATLANTA FALCONS: That's right, we're going back to the brown water well. What? Against the first place Atlanta Falcons? Yes, against the first place 4-6 Atlanta Falcons. They will have no answer for the return of Josh Gordon which will open up the field for Cleveland. Take the points. 

#4. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-5) over St. Louis Rams: Over-hyped versus Over-due. The Rams defense looks great, but there has to be a letdown after what equated to the Ram's Super Bowl last week when they knocked off the Broncos at home. The Rams are over-valued in this spot. Give up the points and take the UNDER, too if you're a totals bettor.

#3. Tennessee Titans (+11) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Could this be an over-valued Monday Night team versus an undervalued blown-out team? It certainly could, but we've seen enough of the Titans defense and enough of Zack Mettenberger to believe this game will stay within a touchdown. Take eleven and get some change. 

#2. DENVER BRONCOS (-7.5) over Miami Dolphins: Not enough points to back the Dolphins against what will be an angry. Peyton Manning is 7-1 with the Broncos after a loss and they've covered six of those games. That's enough for us. 

#1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6) over CHICAGO BEARS: The return of Lovie is all we need to take the Bucs to cover here. The Bears should not be favored by this many over anyone, especially when the Bucs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 visits to Chicago, while the Bears are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 home games. The weather will be terrible, points will be at a premium, so we'll take almost a touchdown all day long.

Sorry so short, but family obligations.

May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco#5. 

NFL Picks Week 11: Chiefs vs Seahawks ATS; Friday Five

Season to Date: 29-21 ATS (58%)

Last Week: 3-2 ATS 

Top Picks to Date: 8-2 ATS (80%)

With the second half of the season in full-swing, things are starting to get interesting around the league. Unfortunately, unlike the days of old when I had nothing to do but watch my daughter and watch football, I these days I can barely manage either. If 2013 taught us anything it is that knowledge is the opposite of power in the sports betting world. If 2014 is doing its part in reinforcing that truth. If you knew the amount of time and energy Marco and I spent last season researching picks, looking for trends, trying different angles, postulating theories, theorizing postulations, making up words that turn out to be real words, it might surprise you that we finished up under .500. On the other hand, what might surprise you even more is the amount we're putting in this year.

Vinny: "Hey Marco, is this a good time to talk out The Five?"

Marco: "Ummm. Actually, I haven't even done my research yet. Can we talk later?"
Vinny: "Sure."
Marco: "Great. I'll call you back in five minutes."

Three minutes later...

Marco: "Okay. I really like Cleveland this week."
Vinny: "Dude, you can't pick Cleveland every week."
Marco: "Okay, but I really, really like them this week."
Vinny: "More than next week when Josh Gordon comes back on both our fantasy teams? Am I right?"
Marco" "Well, no, but...dude, that's going to be awesome."
Vinny: "Yeah it really is. Okay, you can have Cleveland both weeks, but not #1."
Marco: "Deal."

NFL Week 11 Friday Five

#5. OAKLAND RAIDERS (+10.5) over San Diego Chargers: The Raiders are winless and coming off a blowout against the Denver Broncos. The Chargers have fallen from grace and are coming off a bye. This is a classic NFL rivalry under less than classic circumstances. Nonetheless, the players seems to show up for this game and although the Raiders are 4-6 ATS against the Chargers in the last 10 meetings, they've covered the spread seven times and have only lost by more than 10 once in the past five meetings (twice in the past 10). Plus, the Chargers are 1-6 ATS after bye weeks. We'll take those odds at #5. Raiders and the points.



#4. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3) over New England Patriots: This line speaks to us as well. The Patriots have been steamrolling everyone the past few weeks which makes us wonder why the oddsmakers have them looking so attractive as a dog. We're not afraid to take the home favorite here because Indianapolis has come out of byes with 7-2 ATS record in their past nine years. Sure most of that was with Peyton Manning, but it's their crowd that really rests up during the bye week. Go Indy.


   "Dude, I wish I looked that good without a helmet."

#3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS: My daughter's favorite new joke:

Question: How much does it cost for a pirate to get his ears pierced?
Answer: A buck an ear.

The size of this line - much like the one in New Orleans this week - might be telling us something, but with the Redskins carrying a 3-14 SU record their last 17 games and coming out of byes to the tune of 1-3 ATS the past four years we can't in good conscience lay this many points with them. Meanwhile, for whatever reason the Tampa Bay Bucs love road cookin', covering all three since their early season blowout loss in Atlanta. We love Lovie and we love saying we love Lovie. This is a team on the rise. Take the points.



#2. CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3) over Houston Texans: The Cleveland Browns are in first place in their division in the second half of the season for the first time since...well, since the words first place were invented. With LeBron James struggling in his homecoming, the Browns are all the Cleveland fans have right now and you bet they'll be fired up for this one. Meanwhile, not only are the Texans switching QBs this weekend, their win-resume over the likes of Oakland, Washington, Tennessee, and Buffalo doesn't impress us enough to back them with so few points. This is Brian Hoyer's most important game since winning the 2002 Ohio State championship for St. Ignatius High School...as a pitcher. Lay the small chalk and watch him strike out the Texans.



#1. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-2) over Seattle Seahawks: Our days of soliciting coffee donations for #1 picks are behind us. We just don't have the time to network. If you do well with us, come on back and show your appreciation by hitting the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button. We appreciate you nonetheless.



All the numbers point to a Seattle cover here. They have covered 9 of their last 10 as an underdog while the Chiefs are 0-8 ATS in recent history as favorites of less than a field goal. Nonetheless, we are staking our 8-2 ATS record in #1 picks this week with the Kansas City Chiefs. If this were basketball or baseball, we'd believe that it was only a matter of time before the championship pedigree of the Seahawks emerges, but this is the NFL - there are no Michael Jordans or Madison Bumgarners to come to the rescue. The Chiefs will no longer be under anyone's radar after this game. The line movement of four points from Chief dog to favorite with 60% of the public backing Seattle tells me the sharps agree.



May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks Week 10: Packers vs Bears ATS, Friday Five Confidence Picks

Season to Date: 26-19 ATS 

Last Week: 3-2 ATS 

Top Picks to Date: 7-2 ATS

The streak is over. Our number one overall pick went down last week for the just the second time all season when the New York Jets failed to cover the double-digit spread against the Kansas City Chiefs. With plenty of opportunities for the back-door cover, the Jets appeared to just mail it in - non-priority, book rate, on an old-school horse-drawn wagon - at the end of the game. Perhaps Rex Ryan was pulling a Pete Rose as a contingency plan for his impending dismissal. Or maybe Michael Vick had a small wager on the Chiefs to cover the expense of his next concussion. Either way it was awful and embarrassing for everyone in the Jets organization (what happened Laura?) and anyone foolish enough to sell the pick for coffee. Fortunately and unfortunately, there were no new customers to disappoint. 


      "I'm lovin' my new shade of green."

Overall, however, another winning week at The Spread Zone. We loved the idea of going 16-1 ATS with our top picks, but we also remember what happened to the 2011 Green Bay Packers (I'm just going to keep trying to get your attention Nick) when they coasted to a 15-1 record and a first-round playoff exit, so we'll take an early loss and regroup with a big Week 10. With time at as much of a premium as our picks these days, I'm going to skip the foreplay and get straight to Sunday's top plays. 

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2. Coffee Donations: Will work for caffeine. If you feel like sending us a cup of encouragement or a thank you on Monday, just click the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button and send us a orange mocha frappaccino. We love comments, too - praise, criticism, spam, the works. This community is nothing without you - Mysterio, Dally, Dan, BNB4B, Francis, Jay, Todd, John M., Archie...Veronica, Betty, Jughead, you all know who you are. 

NFL Week 10 Friday Five (on Saturday)

#5. Tennessee Titans (+10) over BALTIMORE RAVENS: Yes, the Ravens are great at home. Yes, they are practically unbeatable in November under coach John Harbaugh (12-1 SU). And yes, all five of their wins this season have come by an average of 117.3 (exaggeration alert) points. This, however, is the NFL, which means that when something looks like a sure bet, you'd better think twice while simultaneously Googling images of of fancy hotels in Las Vegas that were built on sure bets. The Titans are coming out of their bye week where bad NFL teams often get better and healthy. Sure their QB and LSU alum Zach Mettenberger will be starting his second career game, but we like the Titans to surprise everyone here and keep this game close. Take the double digits.



#4. Carolina Panthers (+7) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Are the Panthers the same team they were in 2013? No, but what they are and have always been is a terrific live dog to bet. In their last 12 games as a road dog, the Carolina Panthers have gone a cool 9-3 ATS, including SU wins their last two underdog appearances on Monday Night Football. The Eagles are tough on both sides of the ball, but Mark Sanchez is making his first start of the season replacing the injured Nick Foles, and although I picked him up for my fantasy team (shallow FA pool), I expect some struggles and prototypical Sanchezian mistakes to keep this game close. Again with the points. 


#3. San Francisco Forty Niners (+6) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: The Niners have been very mediocre this year and it appears as though Colin Kaepernick's presumed breakout year is turning into a regression to the mean. There's no doubt he is physically gifted, but there is growing doubt every week (that both SF and KC play) that letting go of Alex Smith was the right thing to do. Similarly, the New Orleans Saints have also struggled this year, and both teams enter this contest par for their courses (4-4). Conversely, however, while the Saints are in first place in their division the Niners will be battling for their playoff lives in this game. Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 in his career against the Saints and we believe the Niners will find a way to not only cover this game, but win it outright. The points are a gift. 



#2. GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7) over Chicago Bears: Is there any reason to think Aaron Rodgers coming out of a bye week won't score on the Bears defense every single time he has the ball? We can't find one? Is there any reason to think the Bears defense will be slightly better and slightly healthier after their week off? Of course there is, but not enough to give them any less than double digits at Lambeau Field. The Packers are 4-0-1 ATS at home this year while the Bears come into this match-up at 7-15-2 ATS in the Marc Trestman era. It's time to fade the 2014 Bears.


#1. Coffee + e-mail = Our Top Picks for life. Our top confidence pick has now gone 7-2 ATS this season, which we believe is worth a cup of coffee. As usual, the readers on our mailing list will get this for free and if you were on ourTSZ.com list send us an e-mail at the address below and we'll get the pick to you, too. Otherwise, here's how you get our #1 pick:

1. Click on the Coffee for Vinny and Marco icon to the right and make a donation of your choosing.
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Good luck kind readers. May the spreads be with us all.

Vinny and Marco