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Tuesday, September 24, 2013

NFL Picks Week 4: Niners vs Rams ATS Pick & Predictions

NFL Picks Week 4: Niners vs Rams ATS Pick & Predictions

Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers are 3 point favorites on the road against St. Louis with the total set at 42.

By: MaChez, TSZ Expert

Can you believe it’s already the fourth week of the NFL season? Four more days and we’ll already be a quarter of the way through the season.  Now if I had told you the 49ers would be 1-2 after three weeks, would you have ever believed it?  What if I told you the Rams also would be 1-2? Yeah, I guess that’s a little more believable.

The two teams face off in St. Louis on Thursday night  in what should be an exciting game with season-long implications.  If San Francisco loses, they will be sitting at the bottom of the division with only one less loss than they had all of last season.  If St. Louis loses, they will be sitting in the same place with trips to Seattle and San Francisco still on their plate.  Last season both match-ups went to overtime with one ending in a tie so we can expect a close one on Thursday.

San Francisco 49ers

In the last two weeks the 49ers have been outscored 56-10 and whispers that started after Week 1 about the offense being too complicated for Kaepernick have grown louder and louder.  No one can fault them for losing in Seattle, but only putting up three points is embarrassing .  And then to lose by 20 at home?!  Something is off.  Vernon Davis’ likely return from injury will help, but the fact that Anquan Boldin is their only other weapon is troubling.  Things on defense don’t look great either after two straight weeks of several costly penalties.


St. Louis Rams

After starting the season with an exciting win against Arizona, the Rams have lost two straight on the road to the Falcons and Cowboys.  In both games they gave up 31 points but only in the Falcons game did they mount any kind of comeback.  Last week against Dallas they scored only seven and gave up six sacks after not allowing a single one since last season.  The Rams offensive line has been one of their strong points and will need to revert to their old ways to give Sam Bradford a chance against San Francisco. 


The Spread

Despite San Francisco’s recent struggles, Vegas has made them three point favorites with the total set at 42.  Although bets are split 50/50 on the total, handicappers seem to agree with San Francisco as big favorites with 77% of them giving up the points.  But here at the SpreadZone, we are the 23%!

The Rams will be facing a defense in San Francisco that has given up an average of 28 points this season and will now be without LB Aldon Smith, NT Ian Williams, and the heart of the defense, Patrick Willis.   Bradford has always played well against the 49ers, and like in his game against ARI, should have no problem putting up points at home.

On the other side of the ball, similar to what we’re seeing in Washington, defenses have picked up on the 49ers read-option and are limiting the effectiveness of both Kaepernick and running back Frank Gore.  St. Louis should continue this trend and will force Kaepernick to throw against one of the better CB tandems in Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins.


Last season, St. Louis handed Kaepernick the starting job by knocking out Alex Smith and then handed him his first loss three weeks later in St. Louis.  In that game, Kaep was only able to manage 13 points, threw a ball away in the end zone for a safety and overthrew a pitch that was recovered for a St. Louis touchdown.  Expect Janoris Jenkins and the loud dome to pose problems for Kapernick again and the Rams to cover the spread with a likely straight up win.  However, this won’t be the defensive battle we saw the last time these two teams faced off - take the OVER.

Prediction:     ST. LOUIS RAMS (+3) over San Francisco 49ers, OVER 42 


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